Wednesday, July 29

At the National Gallery of Art, the mining exhibit doesn’t paint the rosiest picture of the industry. Adorning the walls are photos of barren land pockmarked by black-sloped pits and Native Americans standing defiantly in front of refineries. I’m there with Mariana Minerals cofounder Turner Caldwell, a slender, 33-year-old Stanford graduate, standing in front of a portrait depicting two miners, rugged and soot-covered.

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Turner Caldwell, the CEO and cofounder of Mariana Minerals addresses the crew on site at a mine in Utah.Courtesy of Mariana Minerals

When a passerby sees me with my phone out recording Caldwell, I explain that I’m interviewing the founder because he owns a copper mine in Utah. I should’ve added that he’s an ex-Tesla acolyte using an $85 million war chest from leading venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz to outfit the mine with AI—and that he’s one of the many young men investors are wooing out of California and back into the mines.

The man laughs and insists on snapping a picture of Caldwell, dressed in a quarter-zip and slacks, in front of the dirt-covered men. “I’m just going to call it ‘The Copper Miner,’” the man says, looking at the photo on his phone. In Caldwell’s dream world, those men in the mining exhibit with their blackened cheeks would’ve been safe in a nearby control room, overseeing autonomous equipment and using AI-management software to better allocate their resources.

If Silicon Valley is to be believed, we are entering a new chapter of the American project: one in which the “dirty” work of industry comes stateside, and the fresh college graduate who used to arrive in California for a $300,000 Big Tech gig will now decamp to a pit in Utah. It is an age fueled by fears over China and a resource-guzzling AI boom, powered by tech’s top investors who have put more than $1 billion behind mining this year alone. Caldwell sells prospective employees—and himself—on the chance to be on the winning side of an economy in mid-revolution. He tells them, “The last 150 years have been dominated by oil and gas. The next 150 years are going to be dominated by metals.”

The Copper One mining site is located in southeastern Utah and has been operating for over 15 years. It was acquired in 2025 by Mariana Minerals.Courtesy of Mariana Minerals

For the tech moguls who have invested fortunes in frontier AI labs, the lifestyle is romantic, but the work is practical. “Silicon Valley cares about this because data centers are made of metal. That’s it,” one executive at a mining start-up tells me. “They’re levered to the tits on a big bet that depends on the build-out of AI infrastructure.”

Demand for copper, which is for wiring in data centers, will increase by 50% by 2040, according to the data company S&P Global. At the same time, America’s energy consumption is expected to skyrocket, prompting a scramble to build nuclear reactors, solar farms, and natural gas power plants, which will require even more critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper. Today, China has a “near-total dominance” over the critical-minerals market, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

There’s now a critical-mineral start-up for every preferred brand of cowboy. Want to explore the open ocean? Try Wetstone, which is pursuing deep-sea mining rights. More of a space cowboy? AstroForge has raised $55 million to mine metals on asteroids. Prefer trekking through foreign forests? KoBold Metals, which has raised $1 billion from investors including Andreessen Horowitz and Jeff Bezos, is using AI to discover untapped minerals in places like Zambia. And Uber founder Travis Kalanick just announced a $1.7 billion equity investment to build “physical AI,” including autonomous mining machines at the Iraq–Saudi Arabia border.

All these companies offer some version of the same promise: In order to keep up with the demands of AI, we must use AI to usher in a new era of ore discovery, mining, and refining—one that is safer and more efficient. But there’s a reason mining is not typically a venture-backed industry: It’s massively expensive. “A hundred million dollars is literally nothing in the mining industry,” says Robert Friedland, the billionaire founder of Ivanhoe Mines. “I mean, just on one project in Mongolia, just to see whether the metal was there, we’d spend a couple billion dollars drilling.”

Morgan Bazilian, a professor of public policy at the Colorado School of Mines, says that Silicon Valley can pour all the capital it wants into new-age mining: It won’t change the fact that it’s a brutal industry plagued by a shrinking labor pool and stunted by permits that can take a decade to get. “Digging up ore is a totally different thing than whether you can raise money in Silicon Valley,” Bazilian says. “A lot of those companies will go bankrupt.”

So why, then, are young men, armed with hundreds of millions of dollars, heading back into the mines?

Historically, one of the biggest challenges in mining has been finding people who actually want to mine. While the gold rush may have kick-started an era of large-scale American mining, public sentiment curdled over the next century: Between the environmental impact and backbreaking labor, people wondered if it was too high a cost.

“It’s very difficult to convince people,” says Bazilian, “because they’ll say to you, ‘Well, why do I have to go into a mine and not sit in my little coffee shop in Santa Cruz?’”

By the early 2000s, America’s mining industry was shrinking as China’s was rapidly expanding. “Not only did we cede the actual structures of this manufacturing supply chain, but also all of the workforce,” Bazilian says. He estimated that, while America produces about 200 mining engineers every year, China graduates several thousand.

The company markets itself as “the world’s only software-first minerals project developer and operator,” and plans to offer three things: an AI-powered software to run the construction process, a software to manage the mine, and eventually, autonomous mining equipment.Courtesy of Mariana Minerals

Caldwell saw China’s mining dominance firsthand after graduating from Stanford University with a degree in mechanical engineering: He worked at a company designing thermal systems for commercial buildings before getting hired at Tesla. Over the next decade, he helped build its Gigafactory Nevada facility and develop its battery-cell-manufacturing technology, which sent him across Asia to source materials. “Regardless of where minerals were being mined and where end products were being fabricated, everything was actually going to China and back out to the world,” he says.

Before Caldwell’s bet has a chance to pay off, he will need to recruit Stanford graduates like himself (as well as mining veterans) and convince them to leave their prestigious careers sitting in front of a screen all day and adjust to the rugged pioneer lifestyle that was once the model of American masculinity.

It hasn’t been as hard as he thought. In an increasingly digital world, landing a high-paying job at a company that makes something physical has become its own kind of clout among America’s tech bro set. “The thing with being at Jane Street or McKinsey or Goldman or whatever else, they’re all the same fucking job,” says one start-up executive who left a career on Wall Street to go into mining. “You realize that all this prestigious stuff that you were trying to do is just not actually all that interesting.”

There’s a thrill, he says, in telling your friends who are still at their consulting gig, “Oh, I’m on site in Central Africa right now.”

Many of the mining founders tell me that employees view their pioneering lifestyle as a feature, not a flaw. KoBold Metals has mandatory trips for everyone—whether they’re a miner or software engineer—to work for a few weeks on site at mines in Sweden, Arizona, or Zambia. The KoBold Metals team tells me it’s a hit among employees and there’s a waitlist to go on multiple trips.

A mine in Utah where Caldwell and his team are extracting and refining copper to meet surging demand for the costly metal that is undergirding the AI boom.Courtesy of Mariana Minerals

For start-ups like Mariana and General Matter, a uranium enrichment start-up backed by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, there’s an appeal to trading urbanization for Americana small-town life. General Matter founder Scott Nolan says that many of the employees end up enjoying life at the enrichment facility in Paducah, Kentucky. “When people get to experience it firsthand, many of them don’t want to live in California anymore,” he says.

All these companies are also benefitting from a generational sense of ennui, driven by the very technology they’re working to supply. While it’s unclear exactly how AI has impacted the job market, data suggests that computer science majors are hurting: One 2025 Stanford study found that, since the launch of ChatGPT, there has been a 20% employment decline in entry-level jobs for software developers. Other research also showed that, for the first time in two decades, there has been a drop in enrollment for computer science majors.

KoBold Metals CEO Kurt House says that there’s a perception in Silicon Valley that AI will kill many—if not most—purely software companies. If anyone can spin up a replica of your product in minutes, how will any young scrappy founder survive? “If you’re not Anthropic or a handful of companies that make the frontier models,” he says, “What are you going to do?”

That mining executive I spoke with says he recently hired a Columbia Law graduate who chose his company over big law positions, in no small part because of AI. “It’s like, you think ‘legal associate’ is going to be a job in five years? He doesn’t,” the executive says.

Caldwell’s bet relies on the idea that AI will make mining more profitable, environmentally-friendly, and efficient. To do that, they need a whole lot of critical metals.Courtesy of Mariana Minerals

Caldwell has a more optimistic take. AI may take jobs from lawyers and computer software engineers and writers, but it will be hard to take jobs away from miners. Even at Caldwell’s automated mines, he says it’ll still require workers to maintain the machines. “The things that we have not cracked are the design of physical systems and control of physical systems,” Caldwell says.

At the end of my day with Caldwell, he leaves me at the museum. He’s got meetings, and then Andreessen Horowitz is hosting a screening party for a Mariana documentary the firm produced, featuring workers strolling through factories and trucks zooming driverless through the copper mine.

As he walks out, he passes two black-and-white photos hung together, one atop the other. One features only a few men dressed in black suits, standing in an ornate bank. The other is of a large group of workers, men in dirty uniforms posed on a pile of dirt—the ones who went West for a new life and didn’t find what they were looking for.

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