Despite consumers’ seemingly insatiable demand for protein, and rising interest in animal welfare, their appetite for plant-based and cultivated meat has gone from hype to hesitation in the past decade – leaving industry stakeholders, advocates and investors wondering if this is the end of the story or just a false start.
Ten years ago, plant-based meat was often relegated in grocery stores to the lower shelves of frosty freezers for the few vegetarians and even fewer vegans, and in restaurants there was maybe one option for a bean burger or salad without animal protein. Likewise, cultivated meat was virtually unknown with only a handful of players out of stealth mode and even fewer fundraising.
Then Impossible Foods’ and Beyond’s burgers launched – charting simultaneous paths in stores and restaurants that excited consumers, retailers and investors. They also inspired competitors to try and follow their footsteps, only a handful of which delivered on consumer and investor expectations. Those that weren’t up to snuff contributed to a backlash resulting in slipping sales, volumes and investor returns that continue to drag down the segment today.
Despite these declines, Bruce Friedrich – the founder and president of the global science think tank Good Food Institute – explains in this episode of FoodNavigator-USA’s Soup-To-Nuts Podcast that he is still optimistic about the potential for plant-based and cultivated meat to be a $2 trillion market by 2050. As he also shares in his new book, Meat, alternative proteins are still on track to become the “next agricultural revolution” that “will transform humanity’s favorite food – and our future.” But to succeed, he says, stakeholders need to reset their expectations, reinvest in science and manufacturing, convince investors to take a longer view and ultimately meet consumers where they are on taste and price.
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An inflection point
According to Friedrich, the alternative protein segment is at an inflection point and while he believes in its game-changing potential for the food system and business, he says he is also clear-eyed in his assessment that success is not guaranteed – it must be fought for and earned.
“We could absolutely still fail” at making plant-based and cultivated meat mainstream and offsetting reliance on animal protein and its environmental impact, he said.
He explained whether the industries are on the right track “really does depend on your vantage.”
From one perspective, both categories have achieved breakthrough successes in just 10 years, including the launch of popular mainstream plant-based meat brands Beyond and Impossible and regulatory approval of multiple cultivated meat products that consumers scrambled to try at restaurants.
From another perspective, the plant-based meat segment has failed to live up to grand estimates that it would quickly edge out animal protein consumption by 2030 and the cultivated meat and seafood category has blown through more than $3 billion since its inception only to have prominent leaders including Believer Meats, SCiFi Foods, Aqua Cultured Foods and New Age Eats shutter in recent years.
While these concerns are valid, Friedrich adds they are only part of the story – the rest he attempts to lay out in his book, Meat, beginning with a reality check on what the path to success looks like for other breakthrough innovations.
Dive deep into alternative proteins at Future Food Tech San Francisco
Those interested in learning more about the future of plant-based and cultivated meat, can check out the upcoming Future Food Tech summit in San Francisco, where experts will share cutting edge solutions to some of the challenges Friedrich discusses in his book. To learn more, visit www.futurefoodtechsf.com .
‘This is what innovation looks like’
Friedrich argues the transition from hype to hesitation is not unique to the plant-based or cultivated meat’s sectors, according to Friedrich.
“I want to take the opportunity to level set and to say this is what innovation looks like,” he said, glibly adding: “Good luck finding an example where there weren’t a whole mess of business failures” for breakthrough innovations.
For example, he says, 500 car companies went bankrupt in the first 10 years of the automobile, and when the dot.com bubble burst Amazon lost 95% of its value. Both industries are cornerstones to modern society.
In between the ups and downs of other breakthrough innovations is hard work that required significant investment and long-term commitment, which Friedrich argues is exactly what is required of alternative proteins now.
“The book is attempting to be an antidote to the pessimism, but it’s also attempting to be honest and a very even keel look at the challenges that we have. So, I try to say, scientifically, this appears to be something that we can do, but a lot of things don’t happen because you don’t bring the will to the scientific challenge, and we could very easily not bring the will to the scientific challenge, and then we would fail,” he said before asking the pivotal next question: “So, how do we not do that?”
Why is a once-promising segment now floundering?
The first step in righting the alternative protein industry is to identify where it went wrong, which according to Friedrich was failing to set realistic expectations for consumers and investors.
“There was probably more optimism about how easy it was going to be to get to price and taste parity,” for plant-based meat, Friedrich said.
He explained that many startups and investors often overlooked that it took at least $10 million and six years for Impossible to launch its first burger, during which the company aggressively dug into the science of taste and texture.
If the first step to righting the alternative protein segment is identifying where it went wrong, the next is solving those challenges – which Friedrich says in the case of taste and texture may mean going back to the basics of ingredient development and scaling-up infrastructure.
He adds that this may also mean shifting focus from B2C to B2B.
“Running a company is hard. If you are trying to be both an R&D company and a consumer product company, a CPG company, that is really hard. So, I do think entrepreneurs and investors should be looking for plant-based meat ingredient companies, plant-based meat production design” and opportunities to improve the fit for purpose of each, Friedrich said.
Friedrich says one area ripe for innovation and B2B development are flavors for plant-based meat.
What rebuilding realistically looks like
Reviving the plant-based and cultivated meat sectors will take additional funding – something many investors may be shy to offer given both sectors’ struggles, including sliding sales of plant-based meat and the recent closure of several notable cultivated meat and seafood companies.
Friedrich acknowledged that investors who enter or remain in the segment will need to be patient and should think beyond just financial returns to other benefits, such as food security and by extension national security. This combination of attributes makes governments an ideal investment partner for the segment.
“The book really leans in in chapters nine and 10 to the economic opportunity of alternative proteins and then food security. So, food systems’ resilience, meat production, efficiency, food self-sufficiency,” are all priorities governments care about and are driving why they are “getting enthusiastic about plant-based meat and cultivated meat,” he said.
He pointed to investments in both by governments in Korea, Japan, the UK, and the US.
He also noted that economic competitiveness, food security, food systems, resilience, entrepreneurship, small business and deregulation are “all Republican shibboleths” and that plant-based and cultivated meat have bipartisan support.
At the same time, would-be direct competitors in the animal protein sector are outspoken in their support of cultivated meat and plant-based meat, with many investing in the spaces.
Will consumers embrace alternative proteins?
Plant-based and cultivated meat may sound like obvious solutions to environmental challenges and food and national security challenges on paper, but their ability to deliver depends on consumers’ willingness to buy and eat them.
Friedrich argues the new Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which encourages higher consumption of protein, creates a new opportunity to talk to consumers about the value proposition of both plant-based and cultivated meat as healthy nutrition.
He explains that a taste test of plant-based products by Food System Innovations found many of the winning products that are widely available have more protein than the animal-based options they replace. Likewise, he argued, cultivated meat and products that blend animal and plant-based or cultivated meat also have added nutritional and health benefits that could help win over consumers.
For example, he notes, “The Impossible hot dog has three times the protein of a beef hot dog, which is what it is replacing. But they all have more protein. They all have lower caloric density, less fat, less saturated fat, more fiber, no cholesterol and more protein.”
Likewise, he said, “cultivated meat is going to have the same amount of protein, but it’ll be a cleaner product. So, for people who are concerned about things like antibiotic residues or bacterial contamination, or if it’s fish, mercury poisoning or toxic contamination.”
Ultimately, he said, “I think that’s probably something for the plant based and cultivated meat industries to be talking about more.”
Is passion the key to success?
Ultimately, Friedrich says, he remains “super bullish” on the ability for plant-based and cultivated meat to meet the demands of consumers and governments. But given the uphill battle necessary to climb out of the hype cycle, he says he also knows the road ahead won’t be easy and success isn’t guaranteed.
Which is where passion and commitment come in.
“You are not going to do something if you are not trying to do it. We really do need people who see this and care about it to work on making it happen,” Friedrich concluded.
Those interested in learning more about how the plant-based and cultivated meat industries got where they are today and what it will take to get to the next level can check out Friedrich’s book, Meat: How the Next Agricultural Revolution Will Transform Humanity’s Favorite Food – and Our Future.
