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The primary elections in Texas yesterday weren’t just incremental partisan events; they were preliminary, real-world tests of several critical dynamics that will also influence the general election.
On the Democratic side, a battle between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico tested two competing visions for the future of the party. (Talarico prevailed.)
On the Republican side, the match-up between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and longtime Sen. John Cornyn pitted a MAGA diehard against the party’s old guard. (That race is headed to a run-off.)
The results send a strong message to both Democrats and Republicans — lessons you can expect to see reflected, for better or worse, in lots of other contests as the midterms approach. Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas were the first states to vote; Georgia and Mississippi are next. And on November 3, all 435 House seats — plus roughly a third of the Senate and three quarters of state governorships — will be up for grabs.
Here are three big insights from the Texas primaries that the parties will be taking into those contests.
First, the Democrats’ multiracial coalition is under strain. The Democratic primary was, in some ways, defined by race. Crockett held a massive lead among Black voters, while Talarico performed well among the white, college-educated electorate. Both candidates aggressively courted Latino voters, with Crockett in particular centering identity and solidarity as pillars of her campaign. But Latino voters sided with Talarico at the ballot box Tuesday, suggesting that identity-based appeals ultimately weren’t that convincing. (Read more.)
Second, Democrats may not want a Trump-style “fighter.” Crockett and Talarico made two very different appeals to primary voters. Crockett, a firebrand who made her name tussling with MAGA conservatives in Congress, promised to bring the “fight” to Trump (often in crude and colorful fashion). Talarico, meanwhile — who is in training to become a Presbyterian pastor — pitched voters on a vision of the Democratic party that worked to heal political divisions and welcome non-traditional and independent voters into a big-tent political coalition.
Tuesday’s results suggest that, at least in Texas, Democratic voters are open to that kinder, gentler message. And it gives the party one possible path for reclaiming Christianity from conservatives. (Read more.)
Third, the MAGA capture of the Republican Party is (almost) complete. Republican primary voters arguably faced a less stark choice than Democratic voters did, but their final decision will still be telling. Cornyn is a Senate veteran, first elected during the George W. Bush administration. Paxton, on the other hand, is the scandal-dogged champion of a radical, far-right legal movement that has worked to overturn the 2020 election results and reshape how the Constitution is interpreted.
The two men will face off again in a May 26 runoff. But Cornyn faces a tough road if he hopes to save his political career. Veteran senators typically don’t face serious challengers within their own party. And the bottom line is that most Texas Republican voters just voted to make someone other than Cornyn their senator.
A Paxton victory over Cornyn — despite both Paxton’s considerable baggage and heavy ad spending by Cornyn’s allies — would illustrate how completely the MAGA movement has conquered the Republican party. (Read more.)
In other words: The midterms will be interesting.
