Trump Loses Grip as Oil Surge Signals Deeper Crisis

Tom Kool

Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics and later completed an Executive MBA in Energy Transition at the University of Groningen.…

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For the first time in weeks, Donald Trump failed to cool oil markets, as escalating tensions with Iran crushed ceasefire hopes and reignited bullish momentum.

Friday, April 03, 2026

For the first time in many weeks, US President Trump couldn’t contain a late-week price surge as escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran dulled market bears’ expectations of a ceasefire anytime soon. WTI soared this week and is on par with ICE Brent (even if they trade different months), physical benchmarks above $140 per barrel bring back memories of 2008 and Tehran openly discusses introducing a toll mechanism for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The return from Easter holidays is all set for another crude awakening as strikes on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure continue. 

In Times of Cuts, OPEC+ Mulls Production Hikes. Despite most Middle Eastern OPEC members slashing output on the back of closed Hormuz navigation, this weekend’s OPEC+ ministerial meeting might see another 206,000 b/d output hike for May 2026, citing the need to ‘react’ to a rapidly tightening outlook.

China Forces Refiners to Run, Even If at a Loss. China’s state planner NDRC has told independent refiners, the so-called teapots, not to cut refinery runs below their utilization rates from their average levels of the past two years, with Shandong teapots currently operating at 55% of capacity.

Trump Cabinet Softens Terms on SPR Release. The US Department of Energy has offered up to 10 million barrels of sour crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, easing participation terms as now buyers can return oil by November 2027 and minimum return volumes were lowered to 117%.

Trump Slashes Metal Import Duties. The Trump administration has cut import duties on derivative products made from steel, aluminium and copper from the previously imposed 50% to a new rate of 25% applied to the full value of product, eliminating the tariff on products with minimal metals content.

Oil Majors Eye Deeper US Offshore Exposure. According to media reports, an array of European oil majors comprising TotalEnergies, BP, Shell and Repsol are eyeing a majority stake in the Blackstone-backed ultra-deepwater Shenandoah offshore project, with a potential to produce 100,000 b/d. 

Sweden Seizes Sanctioned Shadow Fleet Tanker. The Swedish Coast Guard said it had seized the Flora 1 tanker, part of Russia’s shadow fleet, off the country’s southern coast, claiming that it was the source of a 12km oil spill off the island of Gotland and launching an environmental investigation into the matter.

Facing Fuel Shortages, Bangladesh Cuts Working Hours. Bangladesh, a net importer of crude, refined products and gas, has introduced energy-saving measures to curtail energy consumption in the country, cutting work hours to 4 pm and mandating that all shopping centres be shut by 6 pm.

Key US LNG Plant Cuts Output After Outage. Cheniere Energy’s (NYSE:LNG) 30 mtpa Sabine Pass LNG plant has halved its LNG feedgas intake from 5 bcf/d to 2.6 bcf/d after at least one of the production trains was taken offline this week, with the operator claiming the units would be back soon.

Sulphur Rally Squeezes Miners Worldwide. Mining companies worldwide are suffering from soaring sulphur prices, adversely impacting the economics of metal leaching, with Indonesia’s nickel producers now facing sulphur prices above $600 per tonne, the highest in five years. 

China Re-Exports Record LNG Volumes. Chinese gas importers re-exported 10 LNG cargoes in March, the highest monthly total ever for a country that is notoriously dependent on gas imports, sending prompt cargoes of liquefied gas to embattled neighbours, including South Korea and the Philippines.

Russia Bans Gasoline Exports until July. Russia’s government has imposed a ban on gasoline exports for refiners until the end of July, citing the need to keep domestic prices steady ahead of high-demand season in the summer, taking some 120,000 b/d of gasoline flows off the global markets.

Copper Bulls Eye Chinese Smelter Cuts, In Vain. Defying an industry-wide pledge to jointly cut copper smelting production by 10% this year, China’s leading copper smelters are planning to raise or maintain their output in 2026, keeping SHFE copper prices stuck below ¥96,240 per tonne ($14,000/mt).

Venezuela’s Crude Exports Continue Rising. Venezuela’s oil exports jumped past the 1 million b/day mark in March for the first time since September 2025, boosted by increasing flows to Caribbean islands (used for blending by traders) and a surging demand for heavy barrels from India’s private refiners.

Asian LNG Prices Start to Slip as Demand Falters. JKM, Asia’s key LNG price marker has been declining this month, correcting downwards after peaking above $25/MMBtu in the first weeks of the US-Iran war, dropping to $19/MMBtu this week as spot demand in Northeast Asia dissipated on high prices.  

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

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