A new poll shows Republican Representative Buddy Carter with a lead over other potential candidates in the GOP primary for Georgia’s 2026 Senate race to face off against Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in the general election next November.
Newsweek reached out to the Carter and Ossoff campaigns for comment.
Why It Matters
Georgia’s Senate race will likely be one of the most closely watched elections of the 2026 midterms. It’s a must win for Democrats in their efforts to flip the Senate majority next year, but Republicans are hoping to make it competitive after the state narrowly backed President Donald Trump in last year’s presidential race. The outcome of the race could have key implications for which party holds a critical majority in the coming years.
What to Know
Carter, a Republican whose district includes Savannah and other coastal areas, led other Republicans in a new internal poll of the primary field reported by NOTUS. The poll, however, found that many Georgia Republicans are still unsure about who they plan to support in the primary, meaning it could become a competitive race.
Carter received support from 27 percent of the poll’s respondents, followed by Representative Mike Collins at 18 percent. Ten percent said they are planning to back Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, while 2 percent are supporting Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner John King, according to NOTUS. Notably, neither Collins nor Raffensperger have made official campaign announcements.
If no candidate reaches 50 percent of the vote in the primary or general election, a runoff will be held. No candidate approached 50 percent in this poll.
The poll surveyed 970 likely Republican voters from June 8 to June 10, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Shannon Finney/Getty Images for American Film Institute; Megan Varner/Getty Images
How Does Buddy Carter Fare Against Jon Ossoff?
Recent polls suggest Ossoff has an advantage over Carter and other Republican candidates. Governor Brian Kemp, who has enjoyed strong approval ratings throughout his tenure, was viewed as the GOP’s potential top recruit, but he declined to challenge Ossoff last month.
A Tyson Group poll, initially reported by The Daily Caller, showed Ossoff with an 8-point lead over Carter (47 to 39 percent), with 13 percent remaining unsure of whom they would vote.
Ossoff performed well with moderates in that poll—winning 64 percent of the key group compared to Carter’s 15 percent. The survey polled 600 likely voters from January 30 to January 31, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Turnout will be the “main challenge” for both candidates in the race, Jeffrey Lazarus, professor of political science at Georgia State University, told Newsweek.
“Ossoff is a pretty disciplined campaigner, and I don’t expect him to make any major gaffes, and to be quite honest 10 years into the Trump era gaffes don’t seem to hurt Republicans all that much. So, it’s going to come down to which party can effectively turn out their lowest-propensity voters,” he said.
Ossoff’s early polling lead may “tighten up” once Republicans pick a nominee who earns name recognition throughout the state, Lazarus said.
Carter, until recently, was less known outside of his district, but has been working to improve his name recognition statewide, Lazarus added. He is “pretty close to the middle of House Republicans” in terms of ideology and will likely run as a “generic conservative Republican.”
A Cygnal poll released last month showed a closer race, with 46 percent of respondents backing Ossoff compared to 42 percent who supported Carter. That poll surveyed 800 respondents from May 15 to 17, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.41 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Nick Puglia, a spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told Town Hall in May: “The race is just beginning and Republicans already have candidates within the margin against the most vulnerable 2026 incumbent Senator on the map. Jon Ossoff is a radical leftist who wants to raise taxes on Georgia families and is working every single day to impeach President Trump.”
Senator Jon Ossoff’s campaign manager Ellen Foster previously told Newsweek: “As we’ve said for the past few months, Senator Ossoff is well-prepared to defeat any challenger. As Republicans scramble in the aftermath, our campaign will continue to build insurmountable momentum needed to win next November.”
What Happens Next?
Candidates may still jump in over the coming months, and more polling could come out and indicate how competitive the race may become. The Cook Political Report currently rates Georgia as a pure toss-up for 2026.
Update 6/13/25 9:28 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Lazarus.
