OPEC+ Approves 206,000bpd Increase for May
OPEC+ is set to raise its oil production quota by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May 2026, according to sources who spoke to Reuters.
The increase, however, is expected to have limited impact due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has disrupted supply across key producing nations.
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil transit route, has remained largely shut since late February, constraining exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, while Russia’s output remains restricted by sanctions and war-related damage.
Analysts estimate that 12–15 million bpd, about 15% of global supply, has been affected, making this one of the largest oil supply disruptions in modern history.
Even if the conflict ends soon, experts warn it could take months to restore full production due to infrastructure damage. “The policy may exist largely on paper in the short term,” one source noted.
OPEC+ had gradually unwound production cuts in 2025, raising quotas by 2.9 million bpd before pausing increases in early 2026.
The May adjustment mirrors the April increase agreed by eight core members.
For Nigeria, the situation is mixed: higher oil prices could boost revenues, but domestic output continues to fall.
Production dropped to 1.31 million bpd in February 2026, down from 1.45 million bpd in January, as oil theft, vandalism, and infrastructure gaps persist.
Analysts say every 100,000 bpd shortfall costs Nigeria billions of naira monthly, weakening fiscal buffers and intensifying pressure on the foreign exchange market, even as government projections set a benchmark of 2.6 million bpd at $64 per barrel for 2026.
