Summary
South Peninsular India—Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana—experienced a significant rainfall deficit during the southwest monsoon. Now, the region is looking to the northeast monsoon to make up for the shortfall.
After recording a 24.3% rainfall deficit during the June–September southwest monsoon, South Peninsular India is now banking on the northeast monsoon, or retreating monsoon, which typically sets in October. Southern states receive a significant share of their annual rainfall during October–December. Mint explains.
How did the southwest monsoon perform?
India’s southwest monsoon rainfall in 2026 was 87% of the long-period average (LPA), with cumulative rainfall of 759.4mm during June-September, making it the fourth-lowest since 2001 and 13th-lowest since 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). South Peninsular India—Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana—experienced a significant rainfall deficit during the season. With 542.0 mm of rainfall, 76% of the LPA, the region recorded its fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall since 1901 and second-lowest since 2001. In contrast, Central India received normal rainfall at 97% of LPA, while North-West India and North-East India recorded 94.1% and 74%, respectively.
How are the current reservoir levels?
Reservoir storage across the country’s five regions remained below year-ago levels as of 1 October, with the southern region recording the sharpest shortfall, according to the latest Central Water Commission (CWC) Reservoir Storage Bulletin. The southern region had the lowest storage at 49.15% of its 55.879 billion cubic metres (BCM) capacity across 50 reservoirs, sharply below 87.82% a year ago and the normal level of 76.28%. In the northern region, 11 monitored reservoirs held 60.51% of their combined 19.836 BCM live capacity, against 90.84% a year ago and the normal 81.73%; the western region’s 58 reservoirs held 84.04% of their 38.606 BCM capacity, below 97.06% a year ago and the normal 85.93%. The central region had 87.99% storage across 28 reservoirs, down from 92.70% a year ago but above the normal 85.70%, while the eastern region had 82.70% across 31 reservoirs, up from 78.95% a year ago and the normal 79.94%.
How has kharif sowing progressed this year?
India’s total kharif crop area under sowing stood at 111.5 million hectares as of 2 October, down 1.2 million hectares from 112.7 million hectares a year ago, according to the latest data from the agriculture department. However, it exceeds the normal area of 110.4 million hectares. Rice acreage was the biggest drag, with the area under the crop at 43.4 million hectares, down from 44.9 million last year. Cotton acreage also remained lower at 11.05 million hectares, against 11.1 million hectares. Pulses and oilseeds saw marginal increases in acreage to 12.2 million hectares and 19.6 million hectares, respectively.
Will the northeast monsoon deliver normal rainfall?
The IMD has forecast that seasonal rainfall over South Peninsular India during October-December is most likely to be normal (88-112% of the LPA). Overall, Most parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall. “Strong El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures well above average (especially in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific). Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) and other major climate models indicate that El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end of the year,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD.
What could be the potential impact on rabi sowing and inflation?
Below-normal rainfall during the rabi season could adversely affect soil moisture, water availability, irrigation requirements, and agricultural productivity, while increasing the likelihood of dry spells, moisture stress, and reduced recharge of reservoirs and groundwater. Although extreme weather events are generally less frequent during this season, their occurrence and localized impacts cannot be ruled out. “A rainfall deficit could translate into lower yield, especially in rain-fed areas and delay preparations for the rabi crop season in rain-deficient areas and can also put upward pressure on food inflation,” said Anjal Prakash, professor of public policy at FLAME University, Pune. Food inflation firmed to 5.95% in August, pushing India’s retail inflation to a 20-month high of 4.82%.
About the Author
Vijay C Roy
Vijay C. Roy is a journalist with over 21 years of experience covering various news beats across different organisations such as Business Standard and The Tribune. In the past, he has covered beats such as finance, auto, MSME, commodities, FMCG, pharmaceutical, agriculture, IT/ITES, infrastructure and start-ups. He joined Mint in February 2025, and covers agriculture, food processing, fertilizers, environment and climate change, bringing over two decades of experience reporting on farm policy, food inflation, crop trade, and rural livelihoods.
Vijay’s areas of reporting include food security and climate change policies, focusing on their impact on different stakeholders and their implications. His expertise lies in simplifying complex agri-economic issues such as edible oil import dependence, cotton and wheat trends, fertiliser subsidies, and climate-related risks. He has covered key developments including global supply disruptions and evolving trade policies, offering both macroeconomic perspective and field-level context. Known for his credible and balanced reporting, he follows a rigorous, fact-based approach that prioritises accuracy and context. He is driven by a commitment to public interest, aiming to make critical agricultural and economic issues accessible while contributing to informed policy and industry discussions.
