The war between Iran and Israel and the US may have far-reaching regional and global implications.
By mid-March, there were signs that it could last longer than many had expected.
The longer it lasts, the greater the effects on the global landscape will be.
Barely three weeks into its outbreak, the violence caused disruptions to the flow of oil, resulting in a spike in oil prices.
But that’s not the only way Nigeria may feel its impact.
I am a security scholar and analyst who has researched and written extensively on aspects of Nigeria’s security challenges. These include insurgency, terrorism and counter terrorism.
This work has informed my view that the Iran-Israel-US war poses three fundamental threats to Nigeria’s national security. There could be:
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heightened attacks by terrorists affiliated with Iranian Islamists
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increased violence between Christians and Muslims
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arms flows into Nigeria from Iran and its ideological allies, such as Hezbollah.
These possibilities stand to add to the country’s present security woes, which have been complicated by external jihadist proxies.
The threat of heightened terror attacks
Iran is believed to be a major sponsor of Islamic radicalism and extremism in Nigeria. Iran has suspected links with the proscribed Islamic Movement of Nigeria, a sect which has been accused of stoking anti-state militantism.
With the escalation of the conflict, agents and militants sympathetic to the Iranian cause may align with terrorists to orchestrate attacks on the US or western targets in Nigeria. Some of the terrorist organisations operating in the country are alleged to have links with extremist groups based in or associated with Iran.
Already, the US embassy and other strategic western interests in Nigeria have been placed on high alert.
There have been protests by the Shia brotherhood in Kaduna, Kano, Nasarawa and the Federal Capital Territory (Abuja) since the killing of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The protesters have been condemning violence against Iran and the global Muslim populace.
Inter-faith tensions
The war may also rupture the delicate and volatile inter-faith and sectarian balance in Nigeria, pitting Christians against Muslims. The Nigerian population is split in nearly even portions between adherents of Islam and Christianity. There have in the past been incidents of religious violence between the groups, especially in the northern region of the country.
The solidarity protests by Muslims affiliated with the Islamic Movement in Nigeria are a predictor of violence. The sect, which wants an Islamic state in Nigeria, has been involved in a series of religious disturbances in the country over the Middle East crisis. It has often engaged the government security personnel in violent confrontations.
The arms trade
Lastly, the war could lead to an influx of arms into Nigeria.
The Nigerian authorities have, in the past, accused Iran of shipping arms into Nigeria, ostensibly for terrorists, based on some authoritative sources.
Given that Iran counts among the leading illicit arms suppliers to Nigeria, the escalation of violence in the country and the wider Middle East may lead to an influx of arms. Extremist groups in Iran might consider using their franchises in the Sahel to transfer arms to their terrorist affiliates and proxies in Nigeria.
The way forward
Nigeria’s national security apparatus needs to take steps to mitigate the impact of the crisis.
Firstly, its defence and intelligence arsenals need to stay alert. They must be able to detect and respond to threats in a timely and sustainable manner.
Secondly, the country’s borderlands and frontiers need to be protected and policed to avoid the inflow of arms and militants. Tensions in some parts of northern Nigeria, such as Kaduna and Kano, should be carefully addressed. This should not be done with excessive military force, or it could provoke violent backlash.
Importantly, Nigerians should avoid inciting ethno-religious or sectarian violence. Citizens should conduct themselves in a manner that enables peace to prevail.
