GBP/USD moves sideways after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3610 during the European hours on Monday. The pair could come under pressure as the Pound Sterling (GBP) may weaken amid a fresh government crisis in the United Kingdom (UK). Downing Street Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney has resigned, accepting responsibility for advising Prime Minister Keir Starmer on the appointment of Jeffrey Epstein-linked Peter Mandelson as US ambassador.
The US Dollar (USD) comes under pressure against its peers, with traders turning cautious ahead of key economic releases that were delayed by the partial government shutdown. The January jobs report, due on Wednesday, is expected to point to stabilization in the labor market, with US Nonfarm Payrolls forecast to rise by 70,000, while the Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.4%. Meanwhile, the delayed January consumer price index data is scheduled for release on Friday.
Markets widely expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in March, with rate cuts likely in June and possibly September. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Friday that the economy may stay in a low-hiring, low-firing phase, though it could shift toward no hiring and higher layoffs.
Fed Governor Phillip Jefferson said future policy decisions will be guided by incoming data and assessments of the economic outlook, adding on Friday that the labor market is gradually stabilizing. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that inflation has remained elevated for too long, stressing in a Bloomberg interview on Friday that the Fed cannot lose sight of inflationary risks.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
