Every decade or so, the real estate industry goes through a correction that separates the professionals from the hobbyists. We saw it in 2008. We saw it after the tax reform changes. And we’re seeing it right now. The great shake out.
According to the National Association of Realtors, membership peaked in late 2022 at roughly 1.6 million and has trended downward since, with tens of thousands of agents leaving the business or going inactive. For experienced agents, this isn’t bad news — it’s the opportunity of a career.
Let me explain why. During the boom years of 2020 through early 2022, the housing market was so hot that you practically didn’t need skills to close transactions. Homes sold themselves. Buyers were writing offers sight-unseen. The barrier to entry was essentially a pulse and a license. And thousands of new agents flooded in, attracted by what looked like easy money.
The boom-time illusion
Here’s the problem with learning real estate in a boom: you never actually learn real estate. Think of it like learning to sail on a perfectly calm lake with a motor attached to your boat. Sure, you’re moving across the water, but you’re not really sailing. You’ve never had to read the wind, trim the sails or navigate a storm. The moment the conditions change — the moment the motor cuts out and the wind picks up — you’re not a sailor. You’re a passenger.
That’s exactly what happened to a generation of agents who entered the business between 2019 and 2023. They’ve never negotiated a deal where the buyer had leverage. They’ve never had to convince a seller to accept a price below their Zestimate. They’ve never managed a transaction where the appraisal came in low, and the transaction was about to fall apart. They’ve never had to actually prospect for business because leads were falling from into their laps.
Now the market has changed. Leads have slowed, and transactions are no longer as straightforward. For many agents, this shift is revealing just how important prospecting, negotiation and communication skills really are in building a sustainable business.
Your experience is a weapon — use it
If you’ve been doing this for 10, 15 or 20 years, you have something that no amount of technology, marketing or social media presence can replicate: pattern recognition. You’ve seen cycles. You’ve managed difficult transactions. You’ve sat across the table from tough negotiators and found a way to make deals work. You’ve held nervous buyers’ hands through inspections and walked panicking sellers off ledges when offers came in low.
That experience isn’t just part of your past — it’s what prepares you for moments like this. And in a market where inventory is tight, buyers are cautious, interest rates are unpredictable, and transactions require more care, the agents who can navigate complexity are the ones who will thrive.
The pilot analogy
I often compare this to airline pilots. When the skies are clear and the autopilot is engaged, pretty much anyone in the cockpit can keep the plane going straight. But when you hit turbulence, when an engine light comes on, when the weather closes in and you have to divert — that’s when you want the pilot with 10,000 hours in the seat. That’s when training, instinct, and calm under pressure are the difference between a safe landing and a catastrophe.
Real estate right now is turbulence. And consumers — even if they don’t articulate it this way — are looking for the experienced pilot. They’re looking for the agent who doesn’t flinch when the inspection report comes back ugly, who knows how to navigate an appraisal gap, who can read a room during a negotiation and adjust strategy on the fly. That’s you. That’s your decade-plus of experience at work.
So how do you actually capitalize on this moment? It starts with being seen and being clear about the value you bring.
A lot of experienced agents have built their business on repeat and referral—and that’s a good thing. But when things slow down or get a little uncertain, you can’t rely on that alone. You have to be more visible and more intentional about how you show up in your market.
This is where you lean into your experience instead of downplaying it. Talk about the number of transactions you’ve handled. Talk about the different types of markets you’ve worked through. Share stories, when appropriate, about deals you helped hold together. Those are the moments that demonstrate your value in a way no tagline ever could.
It also means stepping into the conversations happening around you. Host a simple market update. Share what you’re seeing and what it means for buyers and sellers. Create content that helps people make sense of what’s going on.
Because here’s what happens in markets like this—some agents get quiet. Not because they don’t care, but because they’re unsure what to say.
When the market feels uncertain, experience matters more
When things feel a little unpredictable, people don’t look for flashy—they look for steady. They want someone who can walk them through the process, answer their questions clearly, and help them feel confident in their decisions.
That’s where your experience really starts to stand out.
You’ve handled different types of markets. You’ve worked through challenges. You know how to keep a deal together when things get complicated. And whether clients can fully explain it or not, they feel the difference when they’re working with someone who’s done this before.
This is also a time when the industry starts to shift. Some agents step back, others get quiet and some simply aren’t sure how to adjust.
That creates space.
And the agents who continue to show up are the ones who naturally step into that space.
Your skills, your experience, and your ability to guide people through the process become even more important right now. So, the real question isn’t whether the opportunity is there. It’s whether you’re willing to step into it.
Because markets change. They always do. And the agents who stay steady, keep learning, and continue showing up are the ones who come out stronger on the other side.
Darryl Davis, CSP, has spoken to, trained, and coached more than 600,000 real estate professionals around the globe. He is a bestselling author for McGraw-Hill Publishing, and his book, How to Become a Power Agent in Real Estate, tops Amazon’s charts for most sold book to real estate agents.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.
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