A US soldier has been charged with using classified military intelligence to win over $400,000 on prediction market Polymarket — betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro before the mission was made public. Gannon Van Dyke, a Special Forces master sergeant at Fort Bragg, was granted bond Friday, as it emerged he had also been blocked from trading on rival platform Kalshi, according to Business Insider.
Who Is Gannon Van Dyke — and What Is He Accused Of?
Gannon Van Dyke, a 38-year-old master sergeant stationed at Fort Bragg in North Carolina, has been charged with wire fraud, commodities fraud, theft of non-public government information, unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, and making an unlawful monetary transaction.
Prosecutors allege that Van Dyke drew on classified knowledge of Operation Absolute Resolve — a covert US military mission to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — to place a series of bets on prediction market platform Polymarket, ultimately netting more than $400,000 in profits.
Van Dyke was involved for approximately one month in the planning and execution of the Maduro operation, according to the New York federal prosecutor’s office. He signed non-disclosure agreements explicitly promising not to divulge “any classified or sensitive information” related to the operation. Prosecutors contend he promptly violated them.
The Bets: Timed to the Hour Before Missiles Struck Caracas
The timeline set out in a parallel complaint filed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is striking in its precision. On 26 December, Van Dyke transferred $35,000 from his personal bank account into a cryptocurrency exchange — a little over a week before US forces flew into Caracas and seized Maduro.
Between 30 December and 2 January, he placed a series of wagers on when Maduro might be removed from power. The vast majority of those bets were placed on the night of 2 January — just hours before the first missiles struck Caracas.
The trades resulted in “more than $404,000 of profits,” according to the CFTC complaint.
Four of the criminal counts carry a maximum sentence of ten years each; a fifth carries up to twenty years.
Kalshi Blocked Van Dyke — Polymarket Tipped Off the Feds
In a notable development, Van Dyke apparently attempted to open an account on Kalshi, Polymarket’s principal rival in the prediction markets space, but was stopped before he could do so, Business Insider reported.
Elisabeth Diana, head of communications for Kalshi, confirmed to Business Insider that Van Dyke “did not make it past the verification and know-your-customer process,” though she declined to elaborate further.
Polymarket, for its part, says it was the platform that ultimately alerted federal authorities to the suspicious activity. Chief executive Shayne Coplan wrote in a post on X: “Noise aside, the reality is we work proactively with all relevant authorities on any suspicious activity on our marketplace. We flagged this, referred it, and cooperated throughout the process. This happens constantly behind the scenes, despite what many are led to believe.”
In a separate post, Coplan added: “Every trade is public, permanent, and auditable. Bad actors leave a trail.”
Bond Granted: Van Dyke Released on $250,000 Unsecured Bond
Van Dyke made his first appearance in federal court in North Carolina on Friday, where a magistrate judge authorised his release on a $250,000 unsecured bond — meaning he was not required to pay any money upfront. Bearded and tattooed, he said little during the nearly hour-long hearing, at which he was appointed a federal public defender. The magistrate instructed him to report to a federal courthouse in New York by Tuesday, where the case will continue.
The government did not seek to detain him. He was not placed under travel restrictions beyond the court appearance requirement.
FBI and CFTC Both Weigh In
The case has drawn attention from the highest levels of federal law enforcement. FBI Director Kash Patel wrote in a social media post: “This involved a US soldier who allegedly took advantage of his position to profit off of a righteous military operation.”
The CFTC’s chairman, Michael Selig, was equally pointed: “The defendant was entrusted with confidential information about US operations and yet took action that endangered US national security and put the lives of American service members in harm’s way.”
A Quiet New Neighbour With Tattoos and Secrets
One of Van Dyke’s new neighbours in Fayetteville, where he moved just weeks ago, painted a telling picture of the man at the centre of the case. Larry Duncan, a former Marine who once worked on contract at Fort Bragg, said he introduced himself shortly after Van Dyke moved in. “I said, ‘You look like special forces.’ He just smiled,” Duncan recalled. “I worked on a contract at Fort Bragg. I know how those people carry themselves. He was tatted up, quiet, kind of secretive.”
US Prediction Markets Under Growing Scrutiny
The case has reignited a fierce debate about the regulatory oversight of prediction markets — platforms that allow users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, from elections and sporting contests to geopolitical developments and television reality shows.
The sudden surge in these platforms’ popularity has prompted bipartisan calls in Congress for guardrails against insider trading, particularly following a series of highly specific, well-timed bets placed around US and Israeli military action against Iran and around President Donald Trump’s policy decisions.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket formally prohibit insider trading and the use of confidential information. Critics, however, argue that the verification and compliance mechanisms currently in place are insufficient to prevent abuse at scale.
The political dimensions of the industry add further complexity. Trump’s eldest son serves as an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi, and is also an investor in Polymarket.
Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social, is separately launching its own prediction market, Truth Predict. The Trump administration has been broadly supportive of the industry’s expansion.
Van Dyke is being prosecuted in New York.
