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Africa Poverty Rate to Fall 47.8% in 2026 Amid Rising Growth — World Bank
Economic growth across Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African countries is expected to strengthen in 2026, but the pace of expansion remains insufficient to significantly reduce poverty, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, titled “Building AI Readiness.”
The report projected that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will increase to 4.3 per cent in 2026, supported by strong external demand and favorable prices for oil, minerals and other commodities. Resource-rich economies such as Nigeria are expected to benefit from these developments. However, the World Bank cautions that growth driven by extractive industries often has weak links to employment and household incomes.
Per capita GDP growth is projected to rise to 1.8 percent in 2026. Despite this improvement, the World Bank says income gains remain too modest to signal a significant improvement in living standards across the region.
Rising food, energy and transportation costs are also continuing to put pressure on household purchasing power, particularly among poor and vulnerable families.
Nigeria faces a similar challenge. While stronger oil production and other economic activities can increase national output and government revenues, the benefits of growth must translate into productive employment and higher household incomes to have a meaningful impact on poverty.
According to the October 2026 Africa Economic Update, poverty across Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to decline only modestly.
Using the international poverty line of US$3 per person per day, measured in 2021 purchasing power parity, the regional poverty rate is projected to fall to 47.8 percent in 2026 and 47.1 percent in 2027.
The World Bank further noted that this represents a weak poverty outlook despite continued economic expansion.
Poverty is expected to remain broadly stagnant over the 2022–27 period, reflecting both the composition and distribution of economic growth.
In many countries, growth is concentrated in capital-intensive extractive sectors that generate relatively few jobs. Economic gains are also often concentrated geographically, while rapid population growth makes it difficult for increases in national income to translate into higher incomes for the average citizen.
The concentration of poor households in low-productivity informal activities and subsistence agriculture further limits the poverty-reducing impact of economic growth. As a result, the report warns that the absolute number of poor people continues to rise.
The World Bank also highlights artificial intelligence as a potential opportunity to improve productivity and create new sources of income.
The report observed that Nigeria’s GitHub developer base has expanded tenfold since 2020, while Ghana’s has grown nearly eightfold, reflecting increasing participation in software development and the digital economy.
However, the benefits of AI remain largely out of reach for poorer households because of high internet costs, limited electricity access and the affordability of digital devices, the report said.
The report notes that only 12 per cent of households in the poorest income quintile across 19 countries have both a phone and an electricity-grid connection, compared with 54 per cent among the richest households.
The report nevertheless points to opportunities for expanding AI access through relatively simple technologies.
In Kenya, for example, an AI-enabled maternal health service delivered through SMS has reached about three million mothers, demonstrating that AI-powered services can reach people without smartphones or high-speed internet.
For Nigeria and the wider region, the World Bank’s assessment underscores the need for growth that is not only faster but more inclusive.
Expanding productive employment, improving agricultural productivity, strengthening infrastructure, widening access to electricity and affordable internet, and investing in digital skills will be critical.
