Houthis Advance on Bab al-Mandeb as Saudi Oil Route Comes Under Threat

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Yemen’s Houthis captured the Red Sea port of Mocha on Thursday, taking the approach to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea (and the Suez Canal, beyond it) to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Bab al-Mandeb is 12 miles wide and carries 6.2 million barrels of oil and refined products a day (plus ~80% of the LNG shipped north to Europe). Houthi attacks made these waters unsafe for shipping in 2024, and Suez Canal revenue fell more than 60% that year, costing Egypt $7B. Houthi forces also captured Perim Island (13 square kilometers that split the strait into two channels) and Zuqar Island. Holding Perim lets the group monitor and potentially mine the waterway. Brent crude soared to $108 on Thursday, with WTI surpassing $103. Saudi Arabia has rerouted more than 70% of its crude exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu since Iran closed Hormuz. Houthis are now threatening that alternate Saudi route.

Qatar is negotiating long-term LNG purchases from U.S. suppliers after the Iran war crippled its own ability to export gas. QatarEnergy is considering supplies from both operating and under-construction U.S. export projects. Qatar supplied roughly one-fifth of global LNG before the conflict, but exports have almost stopped due to the Hormuz closure, and an Iranian strike damaged its Ras Laffan LNG complex; repairs could take three to five years. Before the war, Qatar was preparing to nearly double its own LNG production…