Trading Desks Boom While Big Oil Output Stalls

By Irina Slav – Apr 18, 2026, 6:00 PM CDT

Europe’s oil majors are set for strong earnings, driven by exceptional trading profits amid extreme volatility in global oil and gas markets.
While trading is booming, upstream production has been hit by Middle East disruptions, with some companies losing output and cash flow.
U.S. majors face mixed results due to hedging and downstream losses, highlighting a divide between trading gains and operational pressures.

Europe’s supermajors are set to report a strong quarter later this month and in early May thanks to their trading divisions. While Big Oil does not report trading profits, BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Equinor all signaled they are making a lot of money on trade with oil and gas in what some say is the worst supply crisis in history.

Shell was the first to flag “significantly higher” profits from oil and gas trading in its financial report for the first quarter of the year. The company attributed the expected windfall on the extreme volatility in international oil and gas markets resulting from the disruption of production and exports from the Middle East.

That said, Shell also reported that its own oil and gas production for the quarter would be down from the last quarter of 2025, at between 880,000 bpd and 920,000 bpd in oil equivalent, compared with 948,000 barrels daily in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company noted this reflected “the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatari volumes.” Shell reports first-quarter results on May 7.

BP was next, reporting in an update that it expected an “exceptional” oil trading result for the first quarter of 2026, amid the extreme volatility in prices. While those watching the futures market alone may find it puzzling that the supermajors are talking about extreme volatility, those focusing on physical oil prices would hardly be surprised. Earlier this month, the price for a barrel of Brent for immediate delivery spiked to $150.

BP, which is set to report full first-quarter earnings on April 28, noted in its update that all its estimated earnings “include impacts associated with the ongoing situation in the Middle East and the current market conditions resulting in heightened volatility in crude oil, natural gas and refined products prices in the latter part of the first quarter.” With fuel shortages already emerging in parts of the world, the strength in trading performance may extend into the second quarter as well.

TotalEnergies was the third supermajor to boast higher profits from oil and gas trading when it reports financials on April 29. The company said in its update on first-quarter results that the war between the U.S. and Israel, and Iran had effectively shut in as much as 15% of TotalEnergies’ global oil and gas production, which also accounts for a tenth of the company’s cash flow from upstream operations.

However, higher international prices for both oil and LNG would boost TotalEnergies’ trading profits considerably, the company said, noting that “Integrated LNG results and cash flow are expected to be significantly higher than fourth quarter 2025, underpinned by a 10% LNG production increase compared to fourth quarter and strong trading activities benefiting from market volatility.” Also, production startups in Brazil and Libya had offset lost Middle Eastern barrels, TotalEnergies said. The startups contributed to a total first-quarter production rate that would be flat on the fourth quarter of 2025.

Norway’s state-owned supermajor Equinor will also reap the benefits of an extra-volatile oil and gas market when it reports first-quarter results on May 6. “The conflict in the Persian Gulf has driven significant volatility across crude, products, and liquids towards the end of the quarter,” the company said in its update, noting that it had guided for operating income from its trading division of some $400 million, but the actual result would be higher.

Equinor, which is currently the biggest single supplier of natural gas to Europe, also said that “Not directly related to the situation in the Middle East, European geographic spreads supported gains from optimising European gas flows.” These gains would extend into the current and future quarters as the European Union begins to refill gas storage depleted after a cold winter.

Meanwhile, Exxon saw its hedging decisions weigh on its own first-quarter results despite the bump provided by higher oil and gas prices. The supermajor said the effect of the Middle East war on its earnings could reach $2.9 billion. However, the net result would be dragged lower by refining results, price hedging, and shipment disruptions, which could suffer a hit of between $3.3 billion and $5.3 billion.

Chevron will also enjoy a windfall from higher oil and gas prices, reporting its first-quarter profits would see a boost of some $1.6 billion to $2.2 billion from the fourth quarter of 2025. Like its larger peer Exxon, Chevron would also incur hefty losses from downstream operations and hedging, estimating these at between $2.7 billion and $3.7 billion as an impact on its profits and operating cash flow.

All in all, Big Oil is making money as it always does during times of supply tightness, likely to be duly rewarded by shareholders, despite the hedging losses for the American majors. Meanwhile in Europe, Italy’s Eni will likely accelerate its return to oil and gas trading, as chief executive Claudio Descalzi said earlier in the year, before the war against Iran began.

“I stopped trading in 2019, but the other big companies are all traders,” Claudio Descalzi told the Financial Times in February. “BP, Shell, Total are big traders, and they make billions from that.”

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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