Pollster shows how Nigel Farage COULD become prime minister in 2029 with shocking graph

Reform UK could “make Nigel Farage Prime Minister if the party reaches 28 per cent support,” according to a shocking new analysis from Electoral Calculus.

Martin Baxter, who runs Electoral Calculus, revealed to GB News that such a scenario would make Reform the largest party in the House of Commons, potentially leading to Farage “becoming Prime Minister with Conservative support.”

The electoral expert shared his predictions through a detailed graph showing the relationship between Reform’s vote share and potential parliamentary seats.

He said: “The graph here is showing the number of seats that Reform will win, under our predictions, against the vote share they get.

“But the interesting thing is that, at the moment, they’re on 15 per cent support and just five seats.

“If they get up to 25 per cent support in the polls, they get about 100 seats.”

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He added: “So, depending how many people support them, the more support they get, the more seats they get.

“The really interesting thing for the year ahead is, if they do a bit better than 25 [per cent], if they can push through that, they might or they might not, but if they get up to 28 per cent, it’s only slightly more, they’re actually the largest party in the House of Commons, and Nigel Farage might be the Prime Minister with Conservative support.”

The analysis comes as Reform UK has seen a significant surge in recent polling, currently sitting at 15 per cent with five MPs.

Current polling shows a remarkable three-way split, with both Labour and the Conservatives at 26 per cent and Reform UK close behind at 22 per cent, according to Electoral Calculus’s poll of polls.

This represents a dramatic shift from July’s general election, where Labour held 35 per cent of the vote, maintaining a 20-point lead over Reform.

A recent Techne UK poll revealed that 22 per cent of Conservative voters from July’s general election have switched allegiance to Reform UK.

The poll also showed Reform leading among pensioners with 25 per cent support compared to Labour’s 21 per cent, and commanding 38 per cent support among 2016 Leave voters.

Reform UK’s electoral momentum has been demonstrated through recent by-election victories.

Reform UK’s youth appeal continues to grow, with 1,000 young people joining the party in less than 48 hours following the launch of discounted £10 memberships for under-25s.

Party sources claim Reform UK has now surpassed 100,000 members overall.

The party’s strategy includes utilising popular podcasts and new media to reach younger voters, contrasting with traditional parties’ approaches.

YouGov polling after July’s General Election showed young men were more likely to vote Reform UK than their female counterparts, at 12 per cent versus six per cent.