Major League Baseball (MLB) is officially getting into the prediction market by releasing new arrangements with Polymarket and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
This should be a pretty clear sign of how the biggest sports leagues are starting to find new blends of the game formats which combine gambling, finance, and fan interaction.
Under the terms of the contract, Polymarket becomes the official prediction market partner of MLB. At the same time, the Commissioner of MLB, Rob Manfred and the Chair of CFTC, Michael Selig have signed a Memorandum of Understanding focusing on sports integrity protection.
The Polymarket agreement is speculated to be anywhere from $150 million to $300 million for a maximum term of three years. It takes the form of a conventional sponsorship, granting Polymarket the license to use MLB logos and marks, as well as visibility on league digital channels and events. Moreover, the company will be utilizing official league data provided by Sportradar.
MLB currently works with the biggest betting operators such as FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM. To clarify, this change should not be interpreted as the end of those partnerships but rather as the addition of another component to the overall strategy.
Contrary to what some might think, Polymarket does not operate fully in the US yet. However, some sports-related contracts have already been launched on their platform, including ones featuring MLB branding. Still, baseball-specific markets are not active, at least for now.
MLB’s move into this area – although it is the largest sports organization in the US still – is not quite the right way to describe it at first. NHL has two deals signed with Polymarket and Kalshi. Additionally, MLS and UFC are also partnering with Polymarket.
Actually, this isn’t even a new idea. When Manfred spoke in February, he said that prediction markets were under consideration especially after Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz betting scandals got exposed.
He said:
We thought it was important for the owners to be updated on why prediction markets are different from sports betting, why we might want to consider being in business with prediction markets in an effort to protect our integrity, to get the kind of protections we need.
Selig added:
We’ve committed to work together to protect the integrity and resilience of prediction markets relating to professional baseball.
Manfred also stated:
The new agreements that we formed with Polymarket and the CFTC are imperative steps in proactively managing the new and rapidly growing prediction market space. Protecting the integrity of the game on the field is our top priority. By engaging in this community, we are able to work together to create clear boundaries with the goal of mitigating risk while providing fan engagement opportunities.
Even if prediction markets still raise questions across the industry, MLB is clearly trying to take a more controlled and proactive approach as this segment keeps evolving.
