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Friday’s soft employment report alone isn’t likely to push the Fed off its rate-hike cycle.
Bitcoin coming up on one-year anniversary of record high
It was October 6, 2025, when the price of bitcoin BTC$85.770,83 crossed above $126,000 before quickly pulling back.
It was far from a brief pullback. Within days, bitcoin had “flash crashed” all the way back to about $100,000, and before Thanksgiving, the price had tumbled to just above $80,000.
After bouncing into the new year, bitcoin resumed its downward trend, bottoming at about $60,000 amid panicky action on February 6, 2026 — exactly four months after the record high.
It would briefly take out that low in early July before rising to the current $85,700, down roughly 32% from the all-time high one year ago.
Equities unbothered by bond selloff, with Nasdaq climbing more than 1%
Crypto has given up its early gains, but the stock market continues to knife through the continued rise in interest rates.
With less than an hour until the close on Monday, the Nasdaq is at a session high, up 1.15%. The S&P 500 is higher by 0.8%, with even the interest rate-sensitive financial sector (XLF) ahead 0.85%.
The 10-year Treasury yield is higher by six basis points to about a 22-year high of 5.34%. On the short end, traders are re-assessing Friday’s conclusion that an October rate hike was off the table following the weak U.S. employment report.
October rate hike odds have risen to 24% after slumping to about 15% at one point on Friday.
‘France is not Greece’: French central bank chief urges fiscal reform
“France is not Greece during the Eurozone crisis,” said Emmanuel Moulin, governor of the Banque de France, in an FT interview. “If it can pass a budget this year to reduce spending and narrow the deficit as the government has proposed, then markets will be reassured by this concrete step of fiscal consolidation.”
“If we don’t act,” he continued, ‘there is indeed a risk of being gradually strangled by rising interest rates.”
Moulin spoke as France’s bond yields have spiked to almost 15-year highs relative to German yields in recent days, prompting some to suggest another EU debt crisis is at hand.
Moulin said it’s not yet time to have a discussion about whether the ECB needs to intervene (as it did to tame the 2011/12 debt crisis).
Bitcoin pressured as rates resume rise
After nearly touching $87,000 on Sunday, bitcoin BTC$85.770,83 has pulled back to $85,500 in late-morning U.S. trade, roughly flat over the past 24 hours.
Possibly pressuring bitcoin is a resumption in bond market difficulties.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is higher by 5 basis points to 5.33%. That’s also up 16 basis points from the Friday low hit after the weak U.S. employment report.
The 2-year yield has returned to 4.84% after tumbling to 4.71% at one point on Friday.
While the September job gain of just 29,000 missed forecasts for 90,000, the average job gain over the past three months is 51,000.
That also seems low, but Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recently pronounced himself unconcerned with weak job growth, noting — among other things — the shrinking labor force.
The bottom line is that Friday’s soft print alone isn’t going to push the Fed off its intent to continue hiking rates. Inflation remains at the forefront in the bank’s mind, and a poor, or even in line, September CPI report next week is likely to bring tighter monetary policy.
SpaceX is up 60% from the August lows
SpaceX SPCX$171,90·Mercato chiuso, led by Elon Musk, is up 5.5% on Monday, taking its gains from August’s low of $105 to 60%. The stock reached $225 shortly after its IPO in mid-June.
SpaceX’s weighting in the Nasdaq 100 was confirmed at 2.82% as part of September’s index rebalancing. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.6%, trading just below Friday’s all-time high.
The current most important fear gauge in the world is easing on Monday
A possible return of the European debt crisis of 2011/12 dominated much of the macro talk last week.
This time, though, it is thought to be far more serious. While the first go-round 15 years ago was about the cratering of government bond markets at the so-called “periphery” of the EU, i.e. Greece, this year’s troubles are at the core — France.
The gauge to watch is the spread between France’s 10-year OATs and Germany’s 10-year Bunds. It blew out last week to levels not seen since that first EU debt crisis.
“At one point on Friday, the spread hit +160 basis points so we were on the edge of a mini panic,” said Deutsche’s Jim Reid. “The big question,” he continued, “is whether this is the start of a new euro sovereign crisis or whether markets have already overshot.”
Reid and team expect the ECB to have to relent on rate hikes, with perhaps one more 25-basis-point move, rather than the three additional hikes markets expected just days ago.
The Bund-OAT spread has narrowed by about five basis points on Monday to 140 basis points, suggesting at least some easing in pressure.
What it means for crypto: Central banks tighten until something breaks. EU debt troubles — particularly at the core — are likely to lead to easier-than-otherwise-anticipated monetary policy, not just from the ECB, but from the Fed as well. Other things being equal, easier monetary policy is good for risk assets, crypto among them.
Services sector strength edged lower last month
The ISM Services PMI dipped to 54.9 in September from 55.4 in August. Economist forecasts had been for 55.
The PMI is a diffusion index, so a reading above 50 indicates economic expansion, and below 50 indicates contraction.
The Prices Paid subindex rose to 74 from 72.6, continuing to indicate strong inflation pressure.
The New Orders Subindex edged down to 59.8 from 60.9.
U.S. government bond yields remain slightly higher for the day, the 10-year up two basis points to 5.30%.
Bitmine bought another $41 million of ether
Bitmine Immersion Tecnologies BMNR$26,75·Mercato chiuso continued its weekly acquisition streak, adding 15,112 ether ETH$2712,08 to its stash last week.
At Monday’s $2,700 ETH price, the purchase is worth roughly $41 million, according to a Monday update.
The purchase pushed Bitmine’s stash to 6,016,414 ETH, equal to about 4.9% of ether’s 122.1 million token supply. At current prices, those holdings are worth roughly $16.2 billion, leaving the firm just shy of its 5% accumulation target.
The firm also bought back 21 million of its own share in the first nine months of the year, chairman Thomas Lee said.
Strive continues fast accumulation pace, adding 2,000 bitcoin last week
Strive ASST$30,22·Mercato chiuso, the bitcoin treasury company led by Matt Cole, added another 2,000 bitcoin last week for $169 million, bringing total holdings to 29,462 valued at nearly $2.5 billion.
Funds for the purchase were raised via warrant exercises on the common stock as well as sales of the company’s high-yielding preferred stock SATA, which has continued to trade at its par value of $100.
Saylor’s Strategy added 334 bitcoin last week
Strategy MSTR$163,80·Mercato chiuso made a modest addition to its bitcoin holdings last week, acquiring 334 coins for $28.7 million. That brought total holdings to 848,000 BTC with an average purchase price of $75,441 each.
The company raised $15.7 million last week via the sale of common stock and also repurchased about $175 million of its high-yielding preferred stock STRC, which continued to trade just a few cents below its $100 par value.
Last week included the end of the third quarter, and Strategy reported a $20.91 billion gain on its bitcoin holdings as well as $1.88 billion in deferred tax expense.
Aave proposes moving protocol IP under DAO-controlled foundation
Decentralized liquidity protocol Aave wants to create a member less Cayman Islands entity, Aave Foundation, that will hold Aave’s trademark and IP for the DAO under the Aave Will Win framework.
This proposal represents Phase 1 of establishing the legal entity and appointing its initial independent director and supervisor. Subsequent phases will focus on transferring the trademark, domains, and codebase IP, as well as defining the operational scope. Each phase will be submitted to governance as a separate proposal.
The AAVE token has dropped by 1% over 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data.
ADA’s futures market activity picks up
Open interest, or the number of active bets, in ADA futures has risen to 2.46 billion tokens as of this writing, according to data source Coinglass. That’s the highest level since Aug. 22.
The token’s price has jumped by 10% to over 27 cents in 24 hours.
An uptick in open interest alongside a price rise is said to confirm the uptrend. It’s taken to indicate that traders are building long positions.
Bitcoin needs to clear $87,200 after soft jobs data, QCP says
Bitcoin rose 1% to just above $86,000 early Monday after a weak U.S. jobs report pushed traders to drop bets on an October Federal Reserve rate hike.
DOGE led the majors with a gain of more than 3%, and HYPE rose nearly 3% to about $93. Ether and XRP gained up to 1%, while SOL, BNB and ZEC each slipped less than 1%, according to CoinDesk data.
According to QCP Capital, U.S. employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, against expectations of 84,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed to 3% from a year earlier, the slowest pace since May 2021.
That supports a Fed pause in October, but long-term borrowing costs have barely moved. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.25%, which QCP pinned on heavy bond supply and the extra return investors now demand to hold long-dated debt.
Weekend liquidations were light at $62.7 million, and short bets made up 68% of the total. “Acceptance above $87,200 remains necessary to confirm the next leg,” the firm said.
Minutes from the Fed’s last meeting come out Wednesday.
