Energy Prices Pull Back Sharply
Energy prices fell 1.1% in July, providing relief to headline inflation. Gasoline prices dropped 2.2%, extending their 9.5% annual decline. Natural gas fell 0.9%, while electricity edged down 0.1% on the month but remains 5.5% higher year-on-year. Energy weakness offset firmness in other CPI components.
Food Prices Flat as Grocery Costs Dip
Overall food prices were unchanged in July. Food at home declined 0.1%, led by sharp drops in eggs (-3.9%) and nonalcoholic beverages (-0.5%). These declines outweighed a 1.5% rise in beef prices. Food away from home advanced 0.3%, with full-service meals up 0.5%.
Market Outlook: Data Slightly Eases Fed Pressure
The softer-than-expected headline print, alongside cooling energy costs, may ease some pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance, especially with tariff-related cost risks still on the horizon. However, core inflation’s persistence above 3% reinforces the Fed’s cautious tone.
Short-Term View: Bullish for Bonds, USD Impact Limited
Treasuries could see mild buying interest as traders adjust for a slightly cooler inflation profile. The dollar is likely to remain steady, with no decisive shift in Fed policy expectations. Equity markets may find modest support, particularly in consumer and transport sectors benefiting from lower fuel costs, though tariff concerns could cap gains.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
