Base-Year Effects to Push Nigeria’s Inflation Near 19% – Experts
Nigeria’s headline inflation is projected to rise toward 19% in January 2026, despite month-on-month price pressures easing, due to statistical base-year effects.
Analysts explain that current prices are being compared against relatively lower levels from January 2025, when inflation stood at 24.48%, creating a technical upward push in annual readings.
Meristem Research noted that headline inflation fell to 15.15% in December 2025, down from 17.33% in November, as food and core inflation eased.
Food inflation dropped to 10.84% year-on-year, supported by ample supply and lower logistics costs, while core inflation declined to 18.63% amid stable fuel prices and naira appreciation.
“We envisage that the stable fuel price should help contain transport and energy-related cost pressures within the core index,” Meristem said, projecting January inflation at 18.88% year-on-year.
Coronation Research echoed similar views, forecasting inflation at 19.19%, citing post-festive demand rebound and pass-through from January’s petrol price adjustment.
“The broader disinflation trajectory remains intact, but near-term risks are tilted slightly to the upside,” the firm stated.
AIICO Capital also projected inflation above 18%, attributing the rise to base-year effects across both food and core components.
It noted that naira appreciation and stable petrol prices helped moderate monthly pressures, but year-on-year comparisons would still drive headline inflation higher.
Analysts expect February inflation to edge up further, driven by restocking ahead of Ramadan and lingering fuel-related cost pressures.
They anticipate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee will maintain a restrictive stance at its February meeting to anchor expectations and sustain portfolio inflows.
