CPGs looking for long-term success rather than quick wins should ground innovation in data and macro behavior change rather than novelty, according to investors who spoke at Startup CPG’s Founders & Funders event in New York City.
The conversation centered on one question: How do you identify a long-lasting product idea, and what will actually matter to VCs in 2026?
The answer, repeatedly, came down to durability, adaptability, data and macro behavior change – not novelty.
Protein as proof of a durable trend
Protein is a clear example of a long-term consumer shift rather than a passing fad, according to Jon Sebastiani, founding partner, Sonoma Brands Capital.
“Protein, as we all know, is in full blossom as a trend,” he said. “Maybe 20 years ago, it was entering this fad territory. It’s hard to always tell when something moves in its early innings.”
He tied that evolution directly to his own investing journey, from Krave Jerky to Oats Overnight. Sebastiani sold Krave to Hershey in 2015 and later bought it back under his company Sonoma Brands in 2020. Sonoma Brands continued its protein push in 2024 as an investor of Oats Overnight, “which is now taking protein into breakfast that is very convenient and user friendly and fulfilling,” Sebastiani noted.
For Sebastiani, protein represents what a viable trend looks like: Long-term consumer behavior change with multiple applications and formats, not a single-claim product.
“Protein is this just perfect example of a very big groundswell trend,” he added.
Rapid-fire: What investors see as trends in 2026
Prebiotics and microbiome health? Trend.
Both Kur and Amos agreed on prebiotics continuing its relevance for consumers’ health priorities. Yet, the knowledge gap on gut health has yet to close for consumers, according to research, underscoring a white space for brands to educate their audiences on the benefits of different biotics.
Plant-based? Trend.
Between vegan and vegetarian lifestyles, climate impacts and the health halo of plant-based diets, the category remains rooted as one with promise, according to the panelists.
GLP-1 friendly products? Trend.
GLP-1 labeling and positioning is a fad, but not because GLP-1 drugs themselves are going away, but because GLP-1 use is going to become so widespread that it won’t need special labeling anymore, Amos said. Sebastiani emphasized that GLP-1 products are here to stay, citing the “benefits are so widespread beyond weight loss.”
Positive Nutrition Broadcast explores global GLP-1 disruption on Feb. 5
Weight-loss jabs are taking the world by storm, reshaping everything from consumer habits to product innovation. Their impact is being felt across regions and across categories, but the effect in one sector isn’t always mirrored in another.
From soft drinks to alcohol, confectionery to snacks, we dissect the disruption and ask what’s next in this upcoming broadcast. Registration is free. Click here to view the agenda and sign up.
Durability over novelty: How VCs define ‘real’ trends
For emerging brands, filtering out trends from fads is based on durability and adaptability, not buzz, according to Julianne Kur, principal, Alliance Consumer Growth.
“How is that consumer behavior change? What’s driving it? What do we think happened to drive it? How durable is that change?” she said.
She added that brands built on narrow hooks struggle long term.
“We want to partner with a brand that can really be adaptable beyond an ingredient, beyond a single claim, beyond what might be an amazing way to acquire some customers today, but not really the definition of a brand in those sort of long term, 10–20 years out.”
While single-claim innovation may drive short-term attention, VCs are underwriting brand platforms, not product trends, Kur explained.
Non-alcoholic beer as a case study in long-term category building
Kur pointed to non-alcoholic beer brand Athletic Brewing Co. as an example of Alliance Consumer Growth’s investment in the brand that was driven by macro tailwinds, not hype cycles.
“We looked to more developed alcohol markets,” like Western Europe, “where non-alcoholic beers [are] high single digits, mid double digits in the beer market,” Kur explained.
The thesis wasn’t trendiness, it was structural category development.
“A lot of it came down to product availability,” Kur said. “Athletic really was offering product that was not asking consumers to compromise product.”
She also emphasized ecosystem tailwinds, where Athletic launched at a time when alcohol giant Heineken was investing in the same category, which helped “the US consumer get over the hump,” and introducing the “obvious benefit of tailwinds around consumers prioritizing their health and wellness.”
The non-alcoholic beer category wasn’t built on a claim, it was built on cultural, social and health behavior shifts already in motion.
Early-stage investing: Seismic trends vs cultural moments
Brands should identify trends through macro behavior change, not consumer novelty, explained Amanda Amos, investor, Collaborative Fund.
Collaborative Fund was an early investor in premium dog food brand Farmers Dog which captured the “humanization of pets” and “how people think about their pets as children,” she said.
Amos also pointed to prebiotic soda Olipop, in which Collaborative invested in 2020, as an example of category expansion. The brand taps into the massive existing soda market, but brought in new consumers who love soda flavors and want less sugar, are considering gut health, and thinking about how fiber fits into their lifestyle, Amos noted.
“What feels more seismic and rooted within the larger macro environment, and what feels like maybe a short-term reaction or an easy fix or something that’s within the cultural zeitgeist,” she said.
Ingredient-led brands and the problem with fad building
Amos also warned against overly narrow ingredient positioning, citing as an example charcoal’s emergence in 2010 as a popular ‘detox’ ingredient in beverages and toothpaste.
Many fads are based “on ingredient-led brands or ingredient-led extensions.”
Charcoal’s positioning as a detoxifying ingredient across food and personal care products was “something that is so specific to a time and a place,” Amos said.
The viral ingredient could have been a “fun extension or starting point,” but did not have a long-term trajectory to change the way consumers live, she added.
How brands prove they’re built on trends, not fads
From the VC perspective, proof comes from data, loyalty and repeat behavior.
“The easy answer is data,” Sebastiani said. “Addressing a market opportunity, the size of the market relative to your competitive set.”
He also emphasized usage occasion disruption, citing the Japanese barbecue sauce brand Bachan’s.
“The world did not need another barbecue sauce. Yet, the brand positioned itself into this usage occasion disruption,” by removing the word ‘barbecue’ and expanding its use into other foods like “scrambled eggs, steamed vegetables, sushi and grilling,” he said.
The result: a $100 million condiment business, Sebastiani emphasized.
Kur reinforced the importance of loyalty and pipeline depth.
Startups should focus “beyond a specific ingredient to show repeat and loyalty,” while ensuring a stable product pipeline, she said.
She added: “Ultimately, your customers don’t lie. They choose and prove their conviction with their dollars and with their share of wallet.”
