Terrifying map for Starmer projects Britain swinging right as Tories and Reform seize over 100 seats

Labour would face a bloodbath across Britain if an election was held tomorrow, a sophisticated polling model has shown.

The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent Scottish, Welsh, London and GB wide polling, has projected hefty gains for the Conservatives and Reform as Keir Starmer’s unpopular administration continues to lose support.

The model, which is weighted for recency as well as historic pollster accuracy, projects Labour to lose a whopping 117 seats, bringing their total to 294 and crucially below the required number for a majority.

Most of these would be lost to the Conservatives who are set to gain 78 seats bringing their tally to 199.

Reform is also projected to capitalise on Labour’s demise, gaining 25 seats to take their tally to 30, making them bigger than the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru combined.

For the Tories, gains are focused in the east and south of England and the Midlands, whilst Reform has strong pockets in the ‘red wall’ and around the Thames estuary.

EXPLORE: Is your seat projected to swing right?

Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats would lose three seats reducing their total to 69 and the SNP would gain 13 bringing them to 22.

Thanks to First Past The Post, the Liberal Democrats’ 69 seats would be more than double Reform’s haul, despite Reform securing 21 per cent of the vote share to the Lib Dem’s 11.7 per cent.

At the top, Labour would still be the biggest party by vote share with 27.1 per cent of the electorate’s backing. The Conservatives are closing in though on 26.0 per cent.

This comes after it was revealed Labour had suffered a net loss of 24 council seats since the General Election in July.

In a complete reversal of fortunes, the Conservatives have recorded a net gain of 23 seats. Reform managed +6.

A series of unpopular decisions implemented by Starmer and his government have contributed to this demolition at the ballot box.

They include raising taxes by £40billion, removing the winter fuel payment for millions of pensioners, slapping farmers with death duties and the scale of donations Starmer and his colleagues received.

This goes without mentioning the Sue Gray fiasco, accusations of politicising the civil service, a Chancellor rewriting her CV, the surrendering of the Chagos Islands and the embarrassing resurfacing of childish, vitriolic remarks many cabinet ministers said of Donald Trump before he won a second term.

Starmer insists he is making the tough decisions now (early in his term) to reap the rewards later down the line.

It is important to remember that the Nowcast model indicates how a General Election could play out if an election were to be held today, not in a few months or years’ time.

It is not a prediction for the next election, rather a snapshot of public opinion at the time of publishing.

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PROJECTED REFORM GAINS:

Amber Valley

Barnsley South

Basildon and Billericay

Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North

Bradford South

Burnley

Cannock Chase

Chatham and Aylesford

Dagenham and Rainham

Derby South

Dudley

Folkestone and Hythe

Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes

Heywood and Middleton North

Hornchurch and Upminster

Kingston upon Hull East

Llanelli

Makerfield

North Durham

North Warwickshire and Bedworth

Sittingbourne and Sheppey

South West Norfolk

Sunderland Central

Tipton and Wednesbury

Walsall and Bloxwich

PROJECTED TORY GAINS:

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

Altrincham and Sale West

Ashford

Aylesbury

Banbury

Bexleyheath and Crayford

Bournemouth West

Bracknell

Brent West

Buckingham and Bletchley

Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket

Burton and Uttoxeter

Chipping Barnet

Chelsea and Fulham

Cities of London and Westminster

Clwyd North

Congleton

Dartford

Darlington

Derbyshire Dales

Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme

Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard

Earley and Woodley

Eastleigh

Ely and East Cambridgeshire

Finchley and Golders Green

Forest of Dean

Gloucester

Gravesham

Harlow

Hendon

Hertford and Stortford

Hyndburn

Isle of Wight West

Kensington and Bayswater

Kettering

Lichfield

Lowestoft

Mansfield

Mid and South Pembrokeshire

Mid Derbyshire

Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland

Monmouthshire

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey

Northampton South

North East Derbyshire

North East Hampshire

North East Hertfordshire

North Somerset

North West Cambridgeshire

Nuneaton

Pendle and Clitheroe

Peterborough

Poole

Portsmouth North

Reading West and Mid Berkshire

Redcar

Redditch

Ribble Valley

Rochester and Strood

Rother Valley

Rugby

Scunthorpe

South Derbyshire

South Dorset

South East Cornwall

South Norfolk

Southend West and Leigh

Stoke-on-Trent South

St Austell and Newquay

Stourbridge

Suffolk Coastal

Swindon North

Tamworth

Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Welwyn Hatfield

Worthing West

Ynys Mon