SHOCK poll delivers blow to Reform UK as Lib Dem ‘surge’ sees Ed Davey’s party hit highest rating since 2019

Reform UK has suffered a dip in popularity while the Liberal Democrats have surged to a five-year high rating, latest poling has shown.

Yesterday, pollsters More In Common put Ed Davey’s party on 16 per cent nationwide, a hefty rise of four points since mid-February.

That was over double the Green’s national polling of eight per cent and just seven points behind third placed Labour on 23 per cent.

The poll also dropped Nigel Farage’s Reform UK from 26 per cent to 24 per cent, meaning the Conservatives took top spot.

Highly respected pollsters YouGov also put the Liberal Democrats on 16 per cent, their highest poll rating since November 2019.

YouGov’s research matched More In Common when it came to Reform with the anti-immigration party dropping two points.

However, Farage’s army remained in first place on 25 per cent, one point ahead of Labour.

While it is not an exact science looking into why poll ratings rise and fall, we can look at last week’s big news and how Reform and the Liberal Democrats responded.

The week was dominated by Ukraine and Donald Trump, to which Farage pushed back on the US president’s claim Zelensky was a dictator.

But Farage did not rebut Trump completely, stating his belief Ukraine should set out a roadmap for elections whether the war is finished or not.

YouGov polling revealed the vast majority of Britain disapprove of Trump and Musk while approving of Zelensky and Britain’s support of Ukraine, hence the possible dip in Reform’s fortunes.

Ed Davey has backed Ukraine emphatically and Starmer’s defence spending boost but warned it is wrong to use foreign aid to do so.

He took aim at Farage in the Chamber, stating: “There’s a rumour that Nigel Farage is keeping his head down because he’s off to a Trump cheerleading conference over the weekend.

“I’m afraid I’m being proved right- Farage is far more interested in Trump’s success than British security. He is a bootlicker and a plastic patriot.”

Farage’s closeness with Trump has also drawn the ire of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

Pressed by GB News’ Political Editor Christopher Hope on whether he was “Nigel Farage in disguise” after his spending boost mirrored that promised in Reform UK’s election manifesto, Starmer said: “Nigel Farage is fawning over Putin.

“That is not patriotism. That is not what working people need. What I have done is take the duty of Prime Minister seriously – ensuring our citizens are safe and secure.

“It is a decision intended to ensure that we fight for the peace that we’ve enjoyed for the last 80 years – so that generations to come can enjoy the freedoms that we’ve enjoyed.”

In terms of how this polling would translate in a general election, the sophisticated poll-aggregating Nowcast model puts the Lib Dems on 72 seats, a change of zero seats after they recorded a strong performance in July 2024.

Reform however is projected to gain 148 seats, bringing their total to 153.

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It comes after the two parties have achieved mixed results in elections since the General Election.

Of the 198 council elections since July 2024, Ed Davey’s party has won 37 seats (a net loss of one) while Reform UK has won 11 seats (a net gain of 11).

Underlying these results, the Lib Dems vote share has bumped 3.3 per cent while Reform is up 8.4 per cent.

Some commentators have said this is a small return for a party dominating headlines and topping national polls, but others have said it is a strong start as Reform has only just professionalised and is going from a standing start in terms of candidate recruitment.

Local elections are due in May, though nine authorities have postponed them as Labour looks to reorganise local government.

The next General Election is due in 2029.