Reform UK predicted to win Runcorn by-election with MASSIVE vote swing as Labour support crumbles

A new poll has tipped Reform UK to overturn a massive Labour majority and win the upcoming Runcorn & Helsby by-election.

Fresh data from Lord Ashcroft Polls has placed Nigel Farage’s party ahead of Labour by 5 percentage points – a major swing from the General Election, when now-disgraced MP Mike Amesbury won the seat with nearly 53 per cent of the vote.

When the survey’s respondents were given a “weighting” based on how likely they are to vote, Reform leads Labour at 40 per cent to 35 per cent.

And when those who said they are certain to vote are polled, the Reform lead rises to nine points – to 42 per cent, a 22 per cent swing since July.

It comes after ex-Labour MP Mike Amesbury announced earlier this week that he would quit the Commons after punching a constituent.

The 55-year-old was given a 10-week prison term, which was later reduced to a suspended sentence after an appeal.

And Sir Keir Starmer’s party has already announced its candidate to contest a looming by-election: Teacher and Cheshire West & Chester councillor Karen Shore.

“Karen Shore will be a champion for the people of Runcorn & Helsby,” the Prime Minister said.

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“She’s local and her experience as a teacher and serving the community as a councillor will give people a strong voice in the House of Commons.

“That’s what people in Runcorn & Helsby deserve in their Member of Parliament.

“I look forward to her working hard with Ministers if she is elected to deliver the local change that the area and our country deserve.”

Reform UK is still yet to select a candidate – despite speculation mounting over recent weeks.

Two names tipped to take the fight to Labour are Jason Moorcroft, who stood for Reform at last summer’s election in the seat, and “Brexit bad boy” Arron Banks.

Moorcroft has been coy on whether he will stand in Runcorn, though Reform insiders said he was a “good egg”.

Banks was brought up in nearby Winsford – but party sources downplayed his chances at being given the job of winning the seat, GB News’ Political Editor Christopher Hope reported late last month.