Nigel Farage smells an opportunity. And this time it’s Labour, not the Tories who should be terrified – analysis by Adam Cherry
Nigel Farage is in a fighting mood. His fledging party – his words, not mine – is on a warpath ahead of the next election.
The Tories are, in the eyes of the Reform true blue, dead and buried. They are not the target anymore. Now it’s Labour’s turn.
All this might sound familiar. It’s the same punchy language we heard repeatedly throughout the general election campaign.
The only difference is he’s not talking about Westminster today. Today we’re in Newport, Wales – and it´s the Senedd election in 18 months that has the Reform faithful gathered this afternoon to hear the leader’s battle plan.
New polling released yesterday tells the real story of why Reform are holding their Wales Conference today, nearly two years out from the 2026 vote: Survation has them at third place already, ahead of the Tories and just a couple of points behind Plaid Cymru.
They’ve skyrocketed by 20 points in a matter of months. To Farage, this is the ammo he needs to go after Labour.
He told me today: “Look at what Labour has done in Wales with devolved powers over the last few years.
“The biggest waiting lists for the NHS in the whole of the country, failing education, lunatic woke policies on a scale that is almost unimaginable, not to mention 20 mile an hour speed limits.”
Later in his conference speech, the crowd booed and hissed when Farage mentioned the speed limit.
There’s more. He went on to say: “Because of the devotion to the net zero agenda primary steelmaking in South Wales at an end, I think they’ve failed completely.
“I think the voters in Wales don’t look at the Conservative Party as really a viable alternative. And so our aim, our ambition is to replace the Conservatives as the main opposition to Labour and to take the fight to them in the Senedd elections.
“And if you believe the opinion polls that are out this morning, we already are making real progress”
If the packed room listening to his address is anything to go by, the progress they’re making is more than theoretical.
Labour is unpopular, and the Tory brand is so toxic in Wales most people would rather vote for Satan than for a Conservative.
Reform smell an opportunity. Whether they can keep up that momentum for another 18 months is another question; a week is an eternity in politics, let alone nearly two years.
Today’s performance was a familiar routine for those who have seen the Reform band play before. Similar notes, similar crowd-pleasers. But if the plan works, they are hoping a dominant performance in 2026 is just the warm-up act for Westminster a few years later…