EXCLUSIVE: Putin ‘close to victory’ on the battlefield warns ex-RAF Chief as Ukraine given ‘brutal’ ultimatum
Vladimir Putin is close to achieving his “ultimate aim” on the battlefield, a top British defence chief has claimed.
Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell’s stark assessment comes as Russian forces make their largest territorial gains since the onset of the conflict.
According to Agentstvo, a Russian news agency, Russian troops captured about 232 square miles in November alone, roughly half the size of London.
These territorial gains are primarily concentrated in the eastern and southern regions. Russian forces have made significant advances around the town of Avdiivka, capturing nearly the entire city. They have also pushed towards the logistic hub of Pokrovsk, which is crucial for Ukrainian military supply lines.
Russian forces have made marginal advances north of Kupyansk, which is strategically located between the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions.
Ukraine’s military has made incursions into Russia’s Kursk region, but Russian forces are now pushing back, regaining some territory. This operation by Ukraine aimed to create a buffer zone and draw Russian forces away from other fronts.
However, it has drawn Ukraine’s elite troops away from the main frontline, potentially weakening their defensive posture elsewhere.
Putin’s territorial gains have come at a significant price. Ukrainian intelligence estimates suggest that Russia is experiencing daily losses of approximately 1,500 soldiers, either killed or severely injured.
Putin has bigger problems off the battlefield.
“The oligarchs – where the real power lies – will not be happy with how things are going,” according to Bell, who served 32 years in the RAF and commanded 1 (Fighter) Squadron and the Harrier Force,
As the ex-RAF pilot points out, Russia’s economy is starting to feel the effects of funding the war machine.
Defence spending has contributed to inflationary pressures, and its dependency on the yen, which has allowed it to circumvent sanctions, leaves it exposed to fluctuations in China’s economy.
The fact that Putin has not done another round of mobilisation and is training around 10,000 North Korean troops in the Kursk region to fight on the battlefield is also revealing, Bell says.
The short straw
Despite setbacks off and on the battlefield, Putin is still in a much stronger position than Ukraine, warns Bell.
“If his ultimate aim was to secure land and demonstrate – like Peter the Great – that he is reforming the Russian empire, then he’s pretty close to being able to claim some form of victory. Therefore, this is about how painful is this for Putin,” he said.
Ukraine and the West are left guessing about Putin’s ironclad grip on power at home, whether “one more push and he will fall off his perch, or if he is very settled”, the British defence chief says.
“I suspect we’re closer to the latter than the former. In other words, I suspect Putin is okay for at least another year of continuous battle,” Bell added.
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The real question is whether Ukraine has an appetite for another year of heavy casualties against an army it ultimately cannot defeat, the military analyst says.
“To be brutally blunt – it’s the smaller party. A war of attrition favours the bigger military, that is, Russia. The longer this goes on, the danger is that Russia will make a breakthrough, and then Ukraine will lose a lot more land. That would have catastrophic consequences,” he warned.
Volodymyr Zelensky regards a compromise or peace deal as unacceptable, but “I think we’re shifting inexorably towards a moment where he’s got some very difficult decisions to make”, Bell adds.