‘Someone will commit a horrific crime’: Labour accused of releasing prisoners ‘willy-nilly’ amid overcrowding crisis

“This Government seems determined to release prisoners willy-nilly at a time the prison service is on its knees,” ex-prison governor Vanessa Frake has warned.

Speaking on GB News, she criticised the government’s approach to prison overcrowding as “pie in the sky”.

“They’re saying prisons will be at capacity in 2026 but that will be a lot sooner if things continue in the same vein,” she said.

Frake expressed concern that “someone will be released who goes onto commit a horrific crime”.

The prison population in England and Wales has reached a six-month high of 87,556, despite thousands of inmates being released early to tackle overcrowding.

This figure now exceeds the 87,453 people behind bars when the current government came to power last July.

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The latest data from the Ministry of Justice reveals the highest weekly figure since September 2024, when the population peaked at a record 88,521.

Sir Keir Starmer had acknowledged at his first press conference as Prime Minister that there were “too many prisoners”.

The Government began freeing thousands of inmates early in September by temporarily reducing the proportion of sentences some prisoners must serve from 50 per cent to 40 per cent.

This led to a drop of nearly 3,000 inmates between the September peak and the end of 2024, when the population stood at 85,618.

But since the start of 2025, the number has grown by 1,938 – reversing roughly two-thirds of the previous reduction.

The Howard League for Penal Reform says the early release scheme has offered only “temporary respite”.

The operational capacity for prisons in England and Wales currently stands at 88,771, indicating there are 1,284 spaces available.

An additional 1,350 cell spaces are kept free as a contingency measure.

MPs on the Public Accounts Committee have warned the system faces “total gridlock” as prisons are forecast to run out of space again in early 2026.

The committee also cautioned that the prison and probation service was “entirely reliant” on “uncertain” future measures from the independent sentencing review expected this spring.

Andrea Coomber KC, chief executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, said: “Prisons have been asked to do too much, with too little, for too long.”

She added that “even the early release of thousands of people has given the Government only a few more months to solve this problem for good”.

“Ministers have acknowledged that they cannot build their way out of this crisis. We must send fewer people to prison, curb the use of recall after release, and prioritise delivering an effective and responsive probation service,” she said.