UK fertility rate disaster: England and Wales hit lowest level since records began as worst-hit area revealed
The total fertility rate across England and Wales has plummeted to a new record low, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.
In 2023, the rate fell to 1.44 children per woman, the lowest since records began in 1938.
This marks a significant decrease from 1.49 children per woman in 2022. The decline has been most pronounced among women aged 20 to 24, with a staggering 79 per cent drop since 1964.
The latest data also shows the number of live births in England and Wales has fallen to 591,072 – the lowest figure since 1977.
Experts suggest various factors may be contributing to this trend, including economic uncertainty amid the cost-of-living crisis and changing societal attitudes towards parenthood.
The decline in fertility rates has been most dramatic among younger age groups. Women aged 20 to 24 saw the sharpest drop, with the rate falling from 181.6 live births per 1,000 women in 1964 to just 38.6 in 2023.
The average age of mothers remained stable at 30.9 years, while fathers’ average age increased slightly to 33.8 years.
Regional variations were notable, with Wales and the North West of England experiencing the largest decreases in total fertility rates.
London, the North East, and the West Midlands saw smaller declines.
Luton recorded the highest fertility rate among local authorities in England at 2.01 children per woman, while the City of London had the lowest at 0.55.
In Wales, Newport had the highest rate (1.63) and Cardiff the lowest (1.16).
Experts have suggested several factors contributing to the declining fertility rates. Professor Melinda Mills from the University of Oxford points to difficulties in finding partners, housing issues, and economic uncertainty as key reasons.
She said: “People are actively postponing or forgoing children due to issues related to difficulties in finding a partner, housing, economic uncertainty, remaining longer in education and particularly women entering and staying in the labour force.”
Professor Mills also highlights that some individuals are choosing to remain child-free.
Professor Bassel H Al Wattar from Anglia Ruskin University describes the trend as “worrying yet persistent”. He suggests the cost-of-living crisis and reduced NHS funding for fertility treatments like IVF may be contributing factors.
The Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority reported in July that the proportion of NHS-funded IVF cycles in the UK has fallen to its lowest level since 2008.
The declining fertility rates have raised concerns about potential long-term implications for society. Professor Mills suggests that postponing childbearing to later ages may result in increased involuntary childlessness.
This trend could have significant impacts on future population demographics and economic structures.
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Despite the overall decline, some areas maintain higher fertility rates. Luton, Barking & Dagenham, Slough, and Pendle recorded the highest rates in England.
In contrast, urban centres like Cambridge, Brighton & Hove, and Westminster saw some of the lowest rates.
Notably, 12 of the 25 local authorities with the lowest fertility rates were in London.
These regional variations highlight the complex interplay of factors influencing fertility decisions across different communities.
The declining fertility rates present challenges for policymakers and society at large.
Greg Ceely from the ONS said: “The annual number of births in England and Wales continues its recent decline, with 2023 recording the lowest number of live births seen since 1977.”
This trend may have far-reaching implications for future workforce dynamics and social services.
However, it’s important to note that alongside falling fertility rates, stillbirth rates have shown some improvement. In Wales, the rate decreased from 4.4 per 1,000 births in 2022 to 4.0 in 2023.
England’s rate remained stable at 3.9 stillbirths per 1,000 births.
Nonetheless, disparities persist. The Sands charity highlights that stillbirth rates remain higher for Asian, black, and other ethnic groups compared to the overall rate in England and Wales.
As the UK grapples with these demographic shifts, continued research and targeted policies will be crucial in addressing the complex factors influencing fertility rates and birth outcomes.