Covid resurgence could see cases break UK records amid new variant outbreak
The UK could see its highest-ever rate of Covid cases, as a new variant of the virus spreads across the country.
The highly infectious JN.1 sub-variant became the dominant strain of the virus over Christmas and it now counts for more than half of the UK’s Covid infections.
For comparison, in October, it accounted for just one per cent, and in November, only 5 per cent of recorded cases were linked to it.
Yet by Christmas Day, it skyrocketed to a staggering 51.4 per cent.
Over the next two weeks, infections in the UK will continue to rise to “rival” the country’s two biggest Covid waves, seen two years ago in 2022.
Professor Christina Pagel, of University College London, said the rapid spread of JN.1 means we are still yet to see the peak.
She said: “JN.1 has only just become dominant. The infection waves driven by Omicron BA.1 – December 2021 and Jan 22 – and BA.5 (July 2022) both peaked just under 3 weeks after they reached 50 per cent of sequenced cases.
“And BA.2 – England’s largest ever wave in March and April 2022 – peaked 4 weeks after it reached 50 per cent of cases,” she told The i.
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“So unfortunately it is likely that this JN.1 wave has not yet peaked and will peak mid-January, either next week or the week after. And then infections will stay very high for a few weeks on the downward slope too.
“I am sure this wave will rival the first two Omicron waves in 2022 and might even exceed them.”
However, she added: “I don’t think hospitalisations will be as high as the first two Omicron waves.”
Between March and April 2022, which was England’s largest-ever wave, 7.6 per cent of the population were estimated to be infected.
Professor Steve Griffin, a virologist at Leeds University, said: “There has clearly been a massive wave of Covid infections over the past few weeks.
“This will no doubt have been driven by indoor socialising over the festive period. It is also likely that the return of schools, universities and businesses in the new year will prolong this.”
Asked if Britain might see a new record this month, he said: “Yes, I think we may see something resembling when [the current record wave] BA2 emerged.”
JN.1 is a descendant of the Pirola variant and has been reported worldwide.
The US Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) said that whilst the spread of JN.1 is rapid, it is not any more aggressive than previous variants.